Value League Tables

Where the betting market under- or over-rates teams — and whether backing them has paid off.

Edge = actual win % minus implied win % from closing average odds. Positive = team wins more than the market expects (undervalued). ROI = return from flat-staking every match to win. Source: football-data.co.uk, 2025/26 season, 96 teams across 5 leagues.

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96 teams

Undervalued (positive edge)Overvalued (negative edge)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Avg Odds	Implied Win%	Actual Win%	Edge ▼	Profit (u)	ROI%
1	LensLigue 1	34	22	4	8	2.25	52.2%	64.7%	+12.5	+10.01	+29.4%
2	VillarrealLa Liga	38	22	6	10	2.50	46.5%	57.9%	+11.4	+4.37	+11.5%
3	BarcelonaLa Liga	38	31	1	6	1.50	70.3%	81.6%	+11.3	+5.46	+14.4%
4	SunderlandPremier League	38	14	12	12	4.43	26.8%	36.8%	+10.0	+14.37	+37.8%
5	GetafeLa Liga	38	15	6	17	3.98	30.2%	39.5%	+9.3	+18.38	+48.4%
6	DortmundBundesliga	34	22	7	5	2.06	55.5%	64.7%	+9.2	+3.00	+8.8%
7	RomaSerie A	38	23	4	11	2.22	51.6%	60.5%	+8.9	+1.53	+4.0%
8	Aston VillaPremier League	38	19	8	11	2.78	42.0%	50.0%	+8.0	+15.04	+39.6%
9	RB LeipzigBundesliga	34	20	5	9	2.29	51.3%	58.8%	+7.5	+2.08	+6.1%
10	NapoliSerie A	38	23	7	8	2.14	53.7%	60.5%	+6.8	+4.83	+12.7%
11	UdineseSerie A	38	14	8	16	3.99	30.2%	36.8%	+6.6	+18.99	+50.0%
12	HoffenheimBundesliga	34	18	7	9	2.62	46.4%	52.9%	+6.5	+4.04	+11.9%
13	RennesLigue 1	34	17	8	9	2.81	43.5%	50.0%	+6.5	+11.54	+33.9%
14	SassuoloSerie A	38	14	7	17	4.00	31.0%	36.8%	+5.8	+9.20	+24.2%
15	Man UnitedPremier League	38	20	11	7	2.39	47.8%	52.6%	+4.9	+11.25	+29.6%
16	LyonLigue 1	34	18	6	10	2.44	48.0%	52.9%	+4.9	+8.34	+24.5%
17	FulhamPremier League	38	15	7	16	3.39	34.7%	39.5%	+4.8	-2.82	-7.4%
18	InterSerie A	38	27	6	5	1.58	66.5%	71.1%	+4.6	+1.98	+5.2%
19	AugsburgBundesliga	34	12	7	15	4.00	31.4%	35.3%	+3.9	+15.97	+47.0%
20	Bayern MunichBundesliga	34	28	5	1	1.30	78.6%	82.4%	+3.7	+2.60	+7.6%
21	ParmaSerie A	38	11	12	15	5.23	25.5%	28.9%	+3.5	+4.30	+11.3%
22	Real MadridLa Liga	38	27	5	6	1.58	67.7%	71.1%	+3.3	+2.17	+5.7%
23	ArsenalPremier League	38	26	7	5	1.64	65.4%	68.4%	+3.0	+0.08	+0.2%
24	LilleLigue 1	34	18	7	9	2.37	50.0%	52.9%	+3.0	+4.98	+14.6%
25	CagliariSerie A	38	11	10	17	4.90	26.0%	28.9%	+2.9	+8.87	+23.3%
26	StuttgartBundesliga	34	18	8	8	2.25	50.1%	52.9%	+2.9	+0.74	+2.2%
27	AngersLigue 1	34	9	9	16	5.78	23.8%	26.5%	+2.7	-4.17	-12.3%
28	StrasbourgLigue 1	34	15	8	11	2.77	41.7%	44.1%	+2.4	-0.40	-1.2%
29	LecceSerie A	38	10	8	20	5.32	24.3%	26.3%	+2.0	-7.11	-18.7%
30	ComoSerie A	38	20	11	7	2.25	50.8%	52.6%	+1.8	+0.71	+1.9%
31	TorinoSerie A	38	12	9	17	4.10	29.9%	31.6%	+1.7	-1.44	-3.8%
32	BolognaSerie A	38	16	8	14	2.90	40.5%	42.1%	+1.6	+3.51	+9.2%
33	LevanteLa Liga	38	11	9	18	4.73	27.7%	28.9%	+1.3	-5.67	-14.9%
34	LorientLigue 1	34	11	12	11	3.87	31.2%	32.4%	+1.2	+3.44	+10.1%
35	EvertonPremier League	38	13	10	15	3.52	33.9%	34.2%	+0.3	+4.25	+11.2%
36	BrentfordPremier League	38	14	11	13	3.14	37.0%	36.8%	-0.1	-0.67	-1.8%
37	ValenciaLa Liga	38	13	10	15	3.67	34.3%	34.2%	-0.1	+0.12	+0.3%
38	LeverkusenBundesliga	34	17	8	9	2.34	50.1%	50.0%	-0.1	+0.73	+2.1%
39	MallorcaLa Liga	38	11	9	18	4.52	29.1%	28.9%	-0.2	-3.96	-10.4%
40	FreiburgBundesliga	34	13	8	13	3.22	38.4%	38.2%	-0.2	-4.13	-12.1%
41	Ath MadridLa Liga	38	21	6	11	2.03	55.6%	55.3%	-0.3	+0.59	+1.6%
42	LazioSerie A	38	14	12	12	3.22	38.4%	36.8%	-1.5	+0.56	+1.5%
43	EspanolLa Liga	38	12	10	16	3.64	33.6%	31.6%	-2.0	-0.19	-0.5%
44	CeltaLa Liga	38	14	12	12	3.06	39.1%	36.8%	-2.2	+5.04	+13.3%
45	SevillaLa Liga	38	12	7	19	3.66	33.9%	31.6%	-2.3	-1.48	-3.9%
46	Paris FCLigue 1	34	11	11	12	3.69	34.6%	32.4%	-2.3	-2.61	-7.7%
47	AlavesLa Liga	38	11	10	17	3.93	31.4%	28.9%	-2.4	-3.96	-10.4%
48	MarseilleLigue 1	34	18	5	11	2.02	55.4%	52.9%	-2.4	-1.13	-3.3%
49	BetisLa Liga	38	15	15	8	2.75	42.1%	39.5%	-2.6	-2.27	-6.0%
50	ToulouseLigue 1	33	12	8	13	3.16	39.0%	36.4%	-2.6	-1.91	-5.8%
51	West HamPremier League	38	10	9	19	4.30	29.1%	26.3%	-2.8	-8.62	-22.7%
52	CremoneseSerie A	38	8	10	20	5.56	23.8%	21.1%	-2.8	-3.86	-10.2%
53	ElcheLa Liga	38	10	13	15	4.26	29.4%	26.3%	-3.1	-13.93	-36.7%
54	BrestLigue 1	34	10	9	15	3.69	32.6%	29.4%	-3.2	-7.30	-21.5%
55	LeedsPremier League	38	11	14	13	3.80	32.3%	28.9%	-3.4	-8.67	-22.8%
56	Union BerlinBundesliga	34	10	9	15	3.86	32.8%	29.4%	-3.4	-0.28	-0.8%
57	Man CityPremier League	38	23	9	6	1.65	64.1%	60.5%	-3.6	-2.05	-5.4%
58	VallecanoLa Liga	38	12	14	12	3.54	35.4%	31.6%	-3.8	-5.04	-13.3%
59	BournemouthPremier League	38	13	18	7	3.15	38.1%	34.2%	-3.9	-0.82	-2.2%
60	MilanSerie A	38	20	10	8	1.94	56.5%	52.6%	-3.9	-0.31	-0.8%
61	HamburgBundesliga	34	9	11	14	4.42	30.5%	26.5%	-4.0	-9.32	-27.4%
62	Paris SGLigue 1	34	24	4	6	1.36	75.1%	70.6%	-4.5	-2.63	-7.7%
63	GenoaSerie A	38	10	11	17	4.03	30.9%	26.3%	-4.6	-10.47	-27.6%
64	Nott'm ForestPremier League	38	11	11	16	3.53	34.3%	28.9%	-5.4	-1.20	-3.2%
65	BrightonPremier League	38	14	11	13	2.73	42.6%	36.8%	-5.8	-4.69	-12.3%
66	AuxerreLigue 1	34	8	10	16	4.17	29.3%	23.5%	-5.8	-10.49	-30.9%
67	MonacoLigue 1	34	16	6	12	2.17	53.0%	47.1%	-6.0	+3.34	+9.8%
68	OsasunaLa Liga	38	11	9	18	3.58	35.3%	28.9%	-6.4	-9.46	-24.9%
69	Crystal PalacePremier League	38	11	12	15	3.34	35.5%	28.9%	-6.6	-8.89	-23.4%
70	MainzBundesliga	34	10	10	14	3.53	36.2%	29.4%	-6.8	-4.53	-13.3%
71	HeidenheimBundesliga	34	6	8	20	4.84	24.5%	17.6%	-6.9	-12.47	-36.7%
72	Le HavreLigue 1	34	7	14	13	4.54	28.2%	20.6%	-7.6	-11.51	-33.9%
73	Ein FrankfurtBundesliga	34	11	11	12	3.22	40.1%	32.4%	-7.8	-11.54	-33.9%
74	M'gladbachBundesliga	34	9	11	14	3.53	34.4%	26.5%	-7.9	-10.16	-29.9%
75	BurnleyPremier League	38	4	10	24	6.89	18.7%	10.5%	-8.2	-20.90	-55.0%
76	OviedoLa Liga	38	6	11	21	5.30	24.2%	15.8%	-8.4	-15.92	-41.9%
77	NewcastlePremier League	38	14	7	17	2.56	45.4%	36.8%	-8.5	-7.24	-19.1%
78	GironaLa Liga	38	9	14	15	3.84	32.5%	23.7%	-8.9	-5.21	-13.7%
79	Werder BremenBundesliga	34	8	8	18	3.84	33.3%	23.5%	-9.7	-14.94	-43.9%
80	SociedadLa Liga	38	11	13	14	3.02	38.9%	28.9%	-9.9	-12.06	-31.7%
81	JuventusSerie A	38	19	12	7	1.83	60.0%	50.0%	-10.0	-6.73	-17.7%
82	NantesLigue 1	33	5	8	20	5.03	25.1%	15.2%	-10.0	-8.62	-26.1%
83	Ath BilbaoLa Liga	38	13	6	19	2.54	44.7%	34.2%	-10.5	-12.12	-31.9%
84	TottenhamPremier League	38	10	11	17	3.18	37.4%	26.3%	-11.0	-10.81	-28.4%
85	St PauliBundesliga	34	6	8	20	4.51	28.7%	17.6%	-11.0	-13.52	-39.8%
86	LiverpoolPremier League	38	17	9	12	1.93	57.0%	44.7%	-12.2	-8.81	-23.2%
87	AtalantaSerie A	38	15	14	9	2.17	52.1%	39.5%	-12.6	-9.80	-25.8%
88	FC KolnBundesliga	34	7	11	16	3.62	33.2%	20.6%	-12.7	-15.38	-45.2%
89	MetzLigue 1	34	3	8	23	5.84	21.8%	8.8%	-13.0	-21.33	-62.7%
90	ChelseaPremier League	38	14	10	14	2.26	50.2%	36.8%	-13.3	-10.64	-28.0%
91	WolfsburgBundesliga	34	7	8	19	3.69	33.9%	20.6%	-13.4	-15.46	-45.5%
92	WolvesPremier League	38	3	11	24	5.79	22.0%	7.9%	-14.1	-23.92	-62.9%
93	FiorentinaSerie A	38	9	15	14	3.17	38.5%	23.7%	-14.9	-9.94	-26.2%
94	VeronaSerie A	38	3	12	23	5.31	24.1%	7.9%	-16.2	-22.41	-59.0%
95	NiceLigue 1	34	7	11	16	3.43	36.9%	20.6%	-16.3	-16.31	-48.0%
96	PisaSerie A	38	2	12	24	5.50	22.8%	5.3%	-17.5	-33.15	-87.2%

Methodology: implied win% = 1 / decimal odds averaged across bookmakers at closing. Edge and ROI use flat-stake backing and are for analytical illustration only.