Performance

Live tracked record

Performance

211 settled signals since 06 Aug · 3 bands, reported separately

Updated 13 Sept · 20:53Start free trial

Published headline record

PRIME

Provisional
51 / 100 fixtures49 to go

Provisional. 51 settled fixtures so far — these figures are published as they accrue, and are not yet a result this platform will stand behind.

Our published record covers PRIME signals only. We also publish EDGE signals, which are settled and reported separately on the EDGE tab and are not included in this figure.

Win rate

55.8%

29W · 23L

Needs to break even

43.4%

at avg 2.31

Clearing break-even by 12.4 points. At an average price of 2.31 this band has to win 43.4% just to stand still.

Yield
+24.1%
Net
+12.5u
Settled
52
Yield z
1.53
No-vig CLV
+4.64%

Does more edge pay?

Strike rate against break-even

Each band prices differently, so each needs a different strike rate just to stand still. The bar is what landed; the marker is what was required.

PRIME score composition · 52 signals

  • PRIME 25
  • WATCH 8
  • Withheld 19
  • Beat break-even
  • Below break-even
  • Break-even required

Simulation, not the published record

PRIME profit curve & what-if

Flat one unit per PRIME signal. Move the edge floor, switch staking, or drop the band’s top fixture and the whole curve re-runs on the same settled results.

≥ 0.0%

52 of 52 settled signals clear this floor

Staking model

52.0u staked across the window

Net at flat 1u

+12.52u

Yield

+24.1%

Settled

52 · 51 fx

Win rate

55.8%

Max drawdown

-3.67%

No-vig CLV

+4.64%
0u+2u+4u+6u+8u+10u+12u+14u+16u
Drawdown from peak · own scale, floor -3.7%
07 Aug11 Sept

Hovering the curve lights the matching row in the signal history below

Every signal, published or not

Signal history

Signals inside the PRIME band. Tap any row for its anatomy.

52 rows

PRIME coverage

Where the edges are

Share of this band's signals by market. Yield is withheld below 15 settled units.

53SIGNALS
  • Match Odds47 sig90.4%+24.8%
  • BTTS3 sig5.8%gated
  • Over/Under2 sig3.8%gated
90%47 signals

Match Odds

yield +24.8%

5.8%3 signals

BTTS

yield gated

3.8%2 signals

Over/Under

yield gated

Execution

Record by bookmaker

PRIME signals only. Yield stays withheld below 15 settled units, which at this sample size is most of them. That is the honest state, not a rendering gap.

BookmakerSignalsW / LWin rateNetYieldNo-vig CLV
Dafabet1613 / 3
81%
+14.64u+91.5%+6.92%
Betano95 / 4
56%
+1.89uwithheld—
Unibet82 / 6
25%
−3.85uwithheld—
10Bet75 / 2
71%
+4.36uwithheld—
SBOBET41 / 3
25%
−1.92uwithheld—
Bet36520 / 2
0%
−2.00uwithheld—
William Hill22 / 0
100%
+1.50uwithheld—
BetVictor10 / 1
0%
−1.00uwithheld—
Marathonbet10 / 1
0%
−1.00uwithheld—
Betfair10 / 1
0%
−1.00uwithheld—
1xBet11 / 0
100%
+0.90uwithheld—

Tracked record opens 6 August 2026 · gate 100 fixtures

Bands are never summed
PRIME and EDGE are settled the same way but reported separately. Merging them lowers yield, lowers the z statistic and flips average no-vig CLV negative, so the combined figure is held internally and never published. The 100-settled-fixture gate applies per band, because one gate over a merged pool can be cleared early by publishing more of whatever is running hot.
Sample gate
A yield is published once a band has 100 settled fixtures and a reading two standard errors from zero. Fixtures, not signals: several signals on one match are not independent bets.gate = 100 settled fixtures AND |yield z| ≥ 2
Adjusted CLV
Closing line value is measured after removing the bookmaker's margin, using a Shin de-vig, against a declared anchor. The vigged number flatters and is not published as the headline.no-vig CLV = ln(advised_fair ÷ closing_fair)
Withheld scores
A MaxEdge Score is withheld rather than estimated when the model behind it has no measured error bar, or when the market probability was assembled from price history rather than a priced line at one moment. A missing score is a fact about the model, not a zero.
Past performance
A tracked record is evidence of process, not a forecast of return. Prices move, models drift, and variance over a few hundred signals is wide. Nothing here is advice. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

Declared scoring anchors

AnchorBooksDe-vigLine
bettable_panel_consensus

closing_lines basis='consensus': the median across the bettable panel when Pinnacle did not quote. This is what every BTTS closing line is, because Pinnacle does not price BTTS.

12-book panelshinpanel_median
independent_consensus

Median pre-kickoff close across the bettable panel with PINNACLE EXCLUDED, Shin-de-vigged, minimum 5 books. Built so a Pinnacle-anchored selection rule can be scored against something it never referenced.

12-book panelshinpanel_median
pinnacle_anchor

Pinnacle's own last strictly-pre-kickoff vector, Shin-de-vigged. The platform's definition of fair value — which is why it cannot score a model that selects against it.

pinnacleshinown_vector

A tracked record is evidence of process, not a forecast of return. Nothing on this page is advice. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly · begambleaware.org