Model vs Market
where our goals model disagrees with the price — ranked by what disagreements have historically paid, not raw edgeLoading the board…
The λ model prices each fixture from Elo, form, shot-based xG and squad value, anchored to market consensus, then simulates the match to fair odds. Edges are shown at the best available price and assume you can take it; favourite and mid-price disagreements are ranked up and longshots down because that is what held up out of sample. Opportunities, not guarantees — expect variance.